Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.001
- 44.6%Success rate44.4%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.54CPOE+2.09
- 36.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.00Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/41 | 326 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/35 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+1.73