2023 · Week 6

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

13·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBengals
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.001
  • 44.6%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.54CPOE+2.09
  • 36.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.00Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W1CIN @ SEA20–21SEA
2015 · W5SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
2011 · W8CIN @ SEA34–12CIN
2007 · W3CIN @ SEA21–24SEA
2003 · W8SEA @ CIN24–27CIN
1999 · W9CIN @ SEA20–37SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CIN
SEAQ1 15:001273Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 8:381365Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 2:2236Punt7–7
CINQ1 0:42773Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 12:20853Punt7–14
CINQ2 6:52520Punt7–14
SEAQ2 3:28842Field goal10–14
CINQ2 0:4334Punt10–14
SEAQ2 0:121-9End of half10–14
CINQ3 15:0035Turnover10–14
SEAQ3 14:13956Turnover10–14
CINQ3 9:19613Punt10–14
SEAQ3 5:42732Field goal13–14
CINQ3 2:24519Punt13–14
SEAQ4 14:06420Turnover13–14
CINQ4 12:0330Field goal13–17
SEAQ4 11:47515Punt13–17
CINQ4 9:46512Punt13–17
SEAQ4 6:171050Turnover on downs13–17
CINQ4 2:0334Punt13–17
SEAQ4 1:39646Turnover on downs13–17
CINQ4 0:3500End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith27/4132602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III19623.31
Geno Smith4205.00
Zach Charbonnet252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett68940
DK Metcalf49690
Jaxon Smith-Njigba45480
Jake Bobo22430
Kenneth Walker III33270
Colby Parkinson35190
Zach Charbonnet22140
Noah Fant1190
Will Dissly1140
DeeJay Dallas11-10

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3518521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon12383.20
Joe Burrow242.00
Chase Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase613800
Tyler Boyd77381
Joe Mixon34240
Tee Higgins24200
Chase Brown1180
Irv Smith1250
Drew Sample1140
Trayveon Williams2230
Andrei Iosivas1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+1.73