Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.036
- 41.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.054
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.27Points / drive1.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/26 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 7 | 83 | 11.9 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Edwards | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 5/15 | 54 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7/18 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 20 | 166 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Cline | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.18