1999 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

27·6

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge map49ers
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.036
  • 41.6%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.14
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1SF @ PIT30–7SF
2019 · W3PIT @ SF20–24SF
2015 · W2SF @ PIT18–43PIT
2011 · W15PIT @ SF3–20SF
2007 · W3SF @ PIT16–37PIT
2003 · W11PIT @ SF14–30SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–SF
SFQ1 15:00859Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 11:44951Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 7:29421Field goal7–3
PITQ1 5:09460Touchdown14–3
SFQ1 2:52314Turnover14–3
PITQ1 1:1754Field goal17–3
SFQ2 14:511369Field goal17–6
PITQ2 6:5370Punt17–6
SFQ2 3:5937Punt17–6
PITQ2 2:37732End of half17–6
PITQ3 15:0039Punt17–6
SFQ3 12:31627Punt17–6
PITQ3 9:1039Punt17–6
SFQ3 7:2530Punt17–6
PITQ3 5:54614Field goal20–6
SFQ3 3:41628Missed field goal20–6
PITQ3 0:42759Missed field goal20–6
SFQ4 11:561051Turnover20–6
PITQ4 7:4839Punt20–6
SFQ4 5:4549Turnover on downs20–6
PITQ4 5:2231Punt20–6
SFQ4 4:5146Turnover on downs20–6
PITQ4 4:06226Touchdown27–6
SFQ4 3:15722Turnover on downs27–6
PITQ4 1:2600End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart15/2613910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley78311.90
Jerome Bettis18532.92
Kordell Stewart382.70
Mike Tomczak3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Edwards69760
Hines Ward44311
Courtney Hawkins23260
Will Blackwell2360
Mark Bruener1300
Richard Huntley0200
Mitch Lyons0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Stenstrom5/155401
Jeff Garcia7/183900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Garner201668.30
Jeff Garcia4256.30
Steve Stenstrom177.00
Lawrence Phillips400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charlie Garner37330
Terrell Owens210150
Lawrence Phillips11110
J.J. Stokes16110
Steve Stenstrom1190
Tony Cline1230
Jerry Rice2420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.18