Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
46
Model margin
+6.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.077
- 38.8%Success rate45.8%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.034
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.50CPOE+4.85
- 30.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.32Points / drive2.08
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 33/46 | 335 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 7 | 120 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/27 | 369 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 3 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 11 | 195 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 4 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.49
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+6.46