2015 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

18·43

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

46

Model margin

+6.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.077
  • 38.8%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.034
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.50CPOE+4.85
  • 30.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.08
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1SF @ PIT30–7SF
2019 · W3PIT @ SF20–24SF
2011 · W15PIT @ SF3–20SF
2007 · W3SF @ PIT16–37PIT
2003 · W11PIT @ SF14–30SF
1999 · W9PIT @ SF27–6PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PIT
PITQ1 15:00946Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:30821Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:39978Touchdown0–8
SFQ1 4:201758Field goal3–8
PITQ2 10:27780Touchdown3–16
SFQ2 8:073-14Punt3–22
PITQ2 5:52135Touchdown3–22
SFQ2 5:45325Turnover3–22
PITQ2 4:40642Touchdown3–29
SFQ2 1:58616Punt3–29
PITQ2 0:1700End of half3–29
SFQ3 15:00714Punt3–29
PITQ3 10:3731Punt3–29
SFQ3 9:011864Turnover on downs3–29
PITQ3 1:5134Punt3–29
SFQ3 0:07666Touchdown10–29
PITQ4 13:16680Touchdown10–36
SFQ4 10:25280Touchdown18–36
PITQ4 9:43580Touchdown18–43
SFQ4 7:431579Turnover on downs18–43
PITQ4 2:35111End of half18–43

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick33/4633520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick9515.70
Carlos Hyde13433.30
Mike Davis7142.00
Jarryd Hayne231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith671201
Vernon Davis57620
Anquan Boldin610601
Quinton Patton44250
Carlos Hyde44180
DeAndrew White22180
Blake Bell13110
Garrett Celek22100
Mike Davis2440
Vance McDonald0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/2736930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams20773.93
Jordan Todman11111.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00
Mike Vick3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown9111951
Darrius Heyward-Bey45771
Markus Wheaton24670
Heath Miller22151
DeAngelo Williams45150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.49
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+6.46