Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play+0.055
- 36.7%Success rate41.8%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -5.63CPOE+5.79
- 31.5%Third-down rate47.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 0.92Points / drive2.10
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q1 9:24 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 9:12 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 6:56 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:13 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q1 3:01 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:02 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:09 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 9:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:16 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 6–14 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| SF | Q3 9:41 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| PIT | Q3 4:46 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| SF | Q4 14:55 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 9–20 |
| PIT | Q4 10:39 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 9–23 |
| SF | Q4 4:59 | 4 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 9–30 |
| SF | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 16–30 |
| PIT | Q4 2:22 | 3 | 46 | Touchdown | 16–37 |
| SF | Q4 1:51 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 16–37 |
| PIT | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/35 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/20 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 24 | 133 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.60