2023 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

30·7

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

SF -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.064
  • 51.6%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.060
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.069
  • 13.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.51CPOE-0.21
  • 48.1%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.54
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W3PIT @ SF20–24SF
2015 · W2SF @ PIT18–43PIT
2011 · W15PIT @ SF3–20SF
2007 · W3SF @ PIT16–37PIT
2003 · W11PIT @ SF14–30SF
1999 · W9PIT @ SF27–6PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:15754Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:2935Turnover7–0
SFQ1 8:00630Field goal10–0
PITQ1 4:3832Punt10–0
SFQ1 3:05973Touchdown17–0
PITQ2 13:303-5Punt17–0
SFQ2 12:17727Field goal20–0
PITQ2 8:2234Punt20–0
SFQ2 6:531139Punt20–0
PITQ2 1:351276Touchdown20–7
SFQ2 0:1000End of half20–7
SFQ3 15:00275Touchdown27–7
PITQ3 14:02430Punt27–7
SFQ3 12:00728Punt27–7
PITQ3 6:5436Punt27–7
SFQ3 5:421-8Turnover27–7
PITQ3 5:35920Turnover on downs27–7
SFQ3 2:02747Punt27–7
PITQ4 12:44748Turnover27–7
SFQ4 10:08829Field goal30–7
PITQ4 5:301258Turnover on downs30–7
SFQ4 1:1000End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2922020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey221526.91
Brock Purdy3206.70
Elijah Mitchell5102.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.284.00
Sam Darnold2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk881292
Deebo Samuel Sr.57550
George Kittle36190
Christian McCaffrey35170
Jauan Jennings0100
Elijah Mitchell0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett31/4623212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris6315.20
Jaylen Warren362.00
Kenny Pickett144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson58640
Diontae Johnson36480
Calvin Austin III66370
George Pickens57360
Jaylen Warren56120
Anthony McFarland22110
Pat Freiermuth1431
Najee Harris2220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.61