Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.064
- 51.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.060
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.069
- 13.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.51CPOE-0.21
- 48.1%Third-down rate37.3%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.69Points / drive1.54
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 152 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 8 | 129 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 31/46 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 6 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.61