Closing spread
SF -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.026
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:39 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:16 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 6:56 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:48 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 0:17 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:33 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 11:06 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 6:27 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 2:31 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:38 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SF | Q3 10:01 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q3 7:39 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SF | Q3 4:51 | 2 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 4:33 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| SF | Q3 4:25 | 1 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| PIT | Q3 4:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–24 |
| SF | Q3 3:59 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 14:58 | 7 | 43 | Missed field goal | 7–27 |
| SF | Q4 12:30 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 7–30 |
| PIT | Q4 9:04 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–30 |
| SF | Q4 7:55 | 12 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 14–30 |
| PIT | Q4 2:00 | 5 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 14–30 |
| SF | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 25/44 | 327 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | -7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 21/27 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 98 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.61
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.90