Closing spread
SF -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.026
- 41.6%Success rate43.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 25/44 | 327 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | -7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 21/27 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 98 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.61
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.90