2019 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

20·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge map49ers
  • -0.136EPA / play+0.077
  • 38.5%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -1.51CPOE+2.34
  • 34.3%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.35Points / drive2.28
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1SF @ PIT30–7SF
2015 · W2SF @ PIT18–43PIT
2011 · W15PIT @ SF3–20SF
2007 · W3SF @ PIT16–37PIT
2003 · W11PIT @ SF14–30SF
1999 · W9PIT @ SF27–6PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–SF
SFQ1 15:00317Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:4735Field goal3–0
SFQ1 11:47845Punt3–0
PITQ1 6:5435Punt3–0
SFQ1 5:282-1Turnover3–0
PITQ1 4:44516Field goal6–0
SFQ1 2:04554Turnover6–0
PITQ2 14:51415Punt6–0
SFQ2 13:06538Turnover6–0
PITQ2 11:2531Punt6–0
SFQ2 10:37953Field goal6–3
PITQ2 6:451134Punt6–3
SFQ2 0:5020End of half6–3
PITQ3 15:00512Turnover6–3
SFQ3 13:19838Touchdown6–10
PITQ3 9:1735Punt6–10
SFQ3 8:0935Punt6–10
PITQ3 7:13382Touchdown13–10
SFQ3 5:421075Touchdown13–17
PITQ3 0:5639Punt13–17
SFQ4 14:01516Punt13–17
PITQ4 11:18349Touchdown20–17
SFQ4 10:22968Turnover20–17
PITQ4 6:4938Turnover20–17
SFQ4 5:29929Touchdown20–24
PITQ4 1:154-2Turnover on downs20–24
SFQ4 0:3700End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph14/2717421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner13433.30
Mason Rudolph4153.80
Johnny Holton199.00
Diontae Johnson166.00
Benny Snell362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster37811
Diontae Johnson36521
James Conner44140
James Washington25140
Vance McDonald12100
Xavier Grimble1230

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo23/3227712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert12796.60
Matt Breida14684.90
Jeff Wilson8182.32
Jimmy Garoppolo630.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle68570
Deebo Samuel Sr.34440
Marquise Goodwin22410
Kendrick Bourne12220
Richie James22220
Matt Breida23200
Dante Pettis45201
Raheem Mostert0100
Jeff Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.49