Closing spread
SF -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play+0.077
- 38.5%Success rate44.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- -1.51CPOE+2.34
- 34.3%Third-down rate45.8%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.35Points / drive2.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 14/27 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 23/32 | 277 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49