Closing spread
SF -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.009
- 44.9%Success rate40.8%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.03CPOE-0.45
- 45.1%Third-down rate29.6%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–3 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/44 | 330 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 12 | 66 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/31 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.49