2011 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

3·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

37

Model margin

+1.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge map49ers
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.009
  • 44.9%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.091
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.03CPOE-0.45
  • 45.1%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–3 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1SF @ PIT30–7SF
2019 · W3PIT @ SF20–24SF
2015 · W2SF @ PIT18–43PIT
2007 · W3SF @ PIT16–37PIT
2003 · W11PIT @ SF14–30SF
1999 · W9PIT @ SF27–6PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–SF
PITQ1 15:00751Turnover0–0
SFQ1 10:361669Field goal0–3
PITQ1 3:25722Turnover0–3
SFQ1 0:15825Field goal0–6
PITQ2 12:131438Punt0–6
SFQ2 5:191159Punt0–6
PITQ2 1:26881End of half0–6
SFQ3 15:0037Punt0–6
PITQ3 13:20410Punt0–6
SFQ3 11:4037Punt0–6
PITQ3 10:08662Field goal3–6
SFQ3 6:08689Touchdown3–13
PITQ3 3:44650Missed field goal3–13
SFQ3 0:5437Punt3–13
PITQ4 14:07514Turnover3–13
SFQ4 11:31512Touchdown3–20
PITQ4 9:0631Punt3–20
SFQ4 7:4635Punt3–20
PITQ4 5:31751Turnover3–20
SFQ4 3:1739Punt3–20
PITQ4 2:0139Punt3–20
SFQ4 1:0900End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger25/4433003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall15644.30
Mewelde Moore12121.00
Ben Roethlisberger100.00
Isaac Redman2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery56930
Heath Miller59820
Mike Wallace512660
Antonio Brown510590
Rashard Mendenhall34250
Mewelde Moore2250
Isaac Redman0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith18/3118710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore18653.61
Alex Smith3124.00
Anthony Dixon5122.40
Ted Ginn166.00
Kendall Hunter221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis610721
Michael Crabtree47350
Kyle Williams45330
Kendall Hunter22240
Ted Ginn11140
Brett Swain1290
Frank Gore0300
Delanie Walker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.49