Closing spread
PK
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:18 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 5:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 3:37 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:32 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 14:23 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:46 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 2:47 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:40 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 24 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 11:22 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 9:34 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 8:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 7:21 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q3 4:10 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:30 | 9 | 23 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q4 14:05 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 12:07 | 8 | 37 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q4 9:02 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 5:22 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| CHI | Q4 4:03 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:54 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| CHI | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| CHI | OT | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 25/38 | 357 | 1 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 19 | 41 | 2.2 | 1 |
| James Allen | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 163 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 8 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.