Closing spread
PK
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 25/38 | 357 | 1 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 19 | 41 | 2.2 | 1 |
| James Allen | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 163 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 8 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.