Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bears
- OutEddie RoyalWRKnee· DNP
- OutMatt ForteRBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulHroniss GrasuCNeck· DNP
- QuestionableBryce CallahanCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableJermon BushrodTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePernell McPheeLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShea McClellinLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableZach MillerTEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableCameron MeredithWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableLaRoy ReynoldsLBKnee· Full
Chargers
- OutChris WattCShoulder· DNP
- OutDenzel PerrymanLBBiceps· DNP
- OutKing DunlapTAnkle· DNP
- OutManti Te'oLBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulLadarius GreenTEAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulOrlando FranklinGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDarrell StuckeySHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableEric WeddleSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableJason VerrettCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick RobinsonCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEKnee· Full
- ProbableBrandon FlowersCBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:32 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:50 | 9 | 62 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:33 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 13:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:44 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 10:50 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q2 9:58 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 6:53 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q2 3:31 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 2:06 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q3 13:25 | 9 | 44 | Missed field goal | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q3 9:28 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q3 7:18 | 16 | 103 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| LAC | Q4 14:02 | 14 | 86 | Field goal | 14–19 |
| CHI | Q4 7:53 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 22–19 |
| LAC | Q4 3:19 | 9 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 22–19 |
| CHI | Q4 1:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/40 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 16 | 151 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.