Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/40 | 345 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 16 | 151 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.