Closing spread
LAC -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.070
- 41.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.242
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- +0.01CPOE-1.84
- 41.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.72Points / drive1.75
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 25/37 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 10 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 31/40 | 298 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 29 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.16