2023 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Tyson Bagent

13·30

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -9.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.2est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapChargers
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.070
  • 41.6%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.242
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +0.01CPOE-1.84
  • 41.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.75
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W8LAC @ CHI17–16CHARGERS
2015 · W9CHI @ SD22–19CHI
2011 · W11SD @ CHI20–31CHI
2007 · W1CHI @ SD3–14CHARGERS
2003 · W9SD @ CHI7–20CHI
1999 · W11CHI @ SD23–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LAC
CHIQ1 15:00430Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:441092Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 7:08417Punt0–7
LACQ1 5:01955Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 0:43730Turnover0–14
LACQ2 12:45824Field goal0–17
CHIQ2 8:501580Touchdown7–17
LACQ2 1:471070Touchdown7–24
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half7–24
LACQ3 15:001150Field goal7–27
CHIQ3 8:5132Punt7–27
LACQ3 7:143-1Punt7–27
CHIQ3 6:08414Turnover on downs7–27
LACQ3 3:5231Field goal7–30
CHIQ3 3:00749Turnover on downs7–30
LACQ4 14:57738Turnover on downs7–30
CHIQ4 11:38934Turnover7–30
LACQ4 8:54520Turnover7–30
CHIQ4 6:141041Touchdown13–30
LACQ4 2:1233Punt13–30
CHIQ4 0:2200End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent25/3723202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman9343.80
Roschon Johnson6213.50
Darrynton Evans4184.51
Darnell Mooney133.00
Tyson Bagent4-1-0.31
Trent Taylor1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet1010790
DJ Moore46550
Darnell Mooney14410
Darrynton Evans34220
Tyler Scott13110
Roschon Johnson34100
Robert Tonyan1180
Velus Jones Jr.1240
D'Onta Foreman1220

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert31/4029830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler15291.90
Joshua Kelley6213.50
Isaiah Spiller331.00
Justin Herbert111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler78941
Keenan Allen810690
Quentin Johnston56500
Donald Parham45431
Josh Palmer34240
Simi Fehoko1291
Isaiah Spiller1150
Derius Davis2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.16