Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/31 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 97 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.