Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutLuis CastilloDETibia· DNP
- OutMalcom FloydWRHip· DNP
- OutMarcus McNeillTNeck· DNP
- OutShaun PhillipsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulLouis VasquezGAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulMarcus GilchristCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTyronne GreenGHand· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GarayDTHip· Full
- QuestionableDarrell StuckeySThigh· DNP
- ProbableAntonio GatesTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableSteve GregorySThigh· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBConcussion· Full
Bears
- OutGabe CarimiTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulD.J. MooreCBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableDevin HesterWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableJulius PeppersDEKnee· Full
- ProbableLance BriggsLBNeck· Full
- ProbableMatt ForteRBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Bears
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:25 | 5 | 47 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 9:40 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:01 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q1 0:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:38 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 9:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 6:35 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:09 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q2 2:04 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:20 | 2 | 26 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| CHI | Q3 10:58 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q3 5:47 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q3 5:32 | 2 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| LAC | Q3 4:53 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 20–31 |
| CHI | Q4 14:55 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 20–31 |
| LAC | Q4 9:51 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 20–31 |
| CHI | Q4 9:31 | 12 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 20–31 |
| LAC | Q4 1:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–31 |
| CHI | Q4 1:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/31 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 97 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.