Closing spread
SD -7
Total
43
Model margin
+7.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 12/23 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.