Closing spread
SD -7
Total
43
Model margin
+7.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:00 | 9 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 4:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:07 | 7 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:13 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 12:09 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 9:25 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 7:10 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 3:43 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 1:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:46 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q3 13:27 | 10 | 27 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q3 8:07 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q3 6:08 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q3 2:50 | 4 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q3 0:45 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q4 13:45 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q4 9:09 | 6 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q4 6:02 | 12 | 41 | End of half | 3–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 12/23 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.