2019 · Week 8

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

17·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBears
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.188
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +3.58CPOE-1.71
  • 45.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.50
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CHI @ LAC13–30CHARGERS
2015 · W9CHI @ SD22–19CHI
2011 · W11SD @ CHI20–31CHI
2007 · W1CHI @ SD3–14CHARGERS
2003 · W9SD @ CHI7–20CHI
1999 · W11CHI @ SD23–20CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CHI
LACQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:4947Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:46416Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:421070Missed field goal0–0
LACQ1 2:1431Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 0:3730Field goal0–3
LACQ2 14:45419Punt0–3
CHIQ2 12:28612Punt0–3
LACQ2 10:1035Punt0–3
CHIQ2 8:45859Field goal0–6
LACQ2 4:16475Touchdown7–6
CHIQ2 2:121070Field goal7–9
CHIQ3 15:001175Touchdown7–16
LACQ3 8:081483Field goal10–16
CHIQ3 0:39515Turnover10–16
LACQ4 12:5446Missed field goal10–16
CHIQ4 10:534-4Turnover10–16
LACQ4 9:25314Touchdown17–16
CHIQ4 8:041241Punt17–16
LACQ4 2:0439Punt17–16
CHIQ4 1:33544Missed field goal17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers19/2920111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon8313.91
Austin Ekeler331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams36690
Keenan Allen710530
Hunter Henry46470
Austin Ekeler23191
Virgil Green11100
Melvin Gordon2330

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky23/3525301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery271355.01
Mitchell Trubisky4102.50
Tarik Cohen492.30
Cordarrelle Patterson155.00
Mike Davis231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Miller33670
Allen Robinson57620
Taylor Gabriel46530
Tarik Cohen33370
Trey Burton14160
David Montgomery45120
Mike Davis1150
Cordarrelle Patterson2210
Adam Shaheen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.13