Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.079
- 47.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.188
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.0%
- +3.58CPOE-1.71
- 45.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.99Points / drive1.50
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/29 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 23/35 | 253 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 27 | 135 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 3 | 67 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.13