Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+4.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 21/30 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 31 | 111 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.