Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
39
Model margin
+4.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CHI lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.4 points. CHI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:10 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:33 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 2:15 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:27 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 8:33 | 5 | 46 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 3:50 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:44 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:47 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q3 10:45 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q3 8:48 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q3 4:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CHI | Q3 3:32 | 11 | 49 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q4 13:17 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q4 9:13 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q4 6:52 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q4 3:08 | 6 | 21 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:21 | 3 | 24 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 21/30 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 31 | 111 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.