1999 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

44·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

41

Model margin

-0.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapEagles
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.192
  • 41.4%Success rate33.4%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.199
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 39.4%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive0.90
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11PHI @ IND17–16PHI
2018 · W3IND @ PHI16–20PHI
2014 · W2PHI @ IND30–27PHI
2010 · W9IND @ PHI24–26PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
2002 · W10IND @ PHI35–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PHI
INDQ1 15:001056Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 10:4632Punt3–0
INDQ1 8:421146Touchdown10–0
PHIQ1 2:4030Punt10–0
INDQ1 1:43371Touchdown17–0
PHIQ1 0:021-25Turnover17–0
INDQ2 14:513-4Field goal20–0
PHIQ2 13:2130Turnover20–0
INDQ2 12:18310Touchdown27–0
PHIQ2 11:2739Punt27–0
INDQ2 9:30726Punt27–0
PHIQ2 5:09952Field goal27–3
INDQ2 1:27553Field goal30–3
PHIQ3 15:00421Punt36–3
INDQ3 13:05180Touchdown37–3
PHIQ3 12:55528Punt37–3
INDQ3 10:41835Punt37–3
PHIQ3 7:0420Turnover43–3
INDQ3 6:56117Touchdown44–3
PHIQ3 6:51411Punt44–3
INDQ3 4:13622Punt44–3
PHIQ3 0:14854Turnover44–3
INDQ4 12:03317Turnover44–3
PHIQ4 10:39626Touchdown44–10
INDQ4 8:27412Opp touchdown44–17
PHIQ4 6:0100Opp touchdown44–17
INDQ4 6:0100Turnover44–17
PHIQ4 6:013-1Turnover44–17
INDQ4 4:5525Turnover44–17
PHIQ4 4:1135Punt44–17
INDQ4 3:1039Punt44–17
PHIQ4 1:44630End of half44–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning16/2623530
Steve Walsh4/52801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James221526.92
Keith Elias12342.80
Peyton Manning2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrence Wilkins461111
Marvin Harrison57601
Edgerrin James56471
Marcus Pollard24250
Keith Elias2280
Isaac Jones1380
Paul Shields1240

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3616512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley16784.90
Donovan McNabb3134.30
Eric Bieniemy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Broughton45650
Torrance Small610590
Duce Staley23170
Chad Lewis23161
Na Brown2490
Eric Bieniemy1110
Dameane Douglas0100
Charles Johnson0200
Jed Weaver0400
Cecil Martin22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.01