Closing spread
IND -7
Total
41
Model margin
-0.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.192
- 41.4%Success rate33.4%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- 39.4%Third-down rate31.2%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.88Points / drive0.90
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/26 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
| Steve Walsh | 4/5 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 152 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Keith Elias | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Wilkins | 4 | 6 | 111 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Keith Elias | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaac Jones | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/36 | 165 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Broughton | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 6 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.01