2002 · Week 10

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

35·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapEagles
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.004
  • 44.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 44.5%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.81
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11PHI @ IND17–16PHI
2018 · W3IND @ PHI16–20PHI
2014 · W2PHI @ IND30–27PHI
2010 · W9IND @ PHI24–26PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
1999 · W11IND @ PHI44–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001164Field goal0–3
INDQ1 10:05774Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 6:4432Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:09543Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 2:2830Punt7–3
INDQ1 1:28372Touchdown14–3
PHIQ1 0:0000Turnover on downs14–3
PHIQ2 15:001162Turnover on downs14–3
INDQ2 9:1238Punt14–3
PHIQ2 6:56644Field goal14–6
INDQ2 3:38831Punt14–6
PHIQ2 1:00313End of half14–6
INDQ3 15:00871Touchdown21–6
PHIQ3 10:22316Turnover21–6
INDQ3 8:4332Punt21–6
PHIQ3 7:11629Turnover on downs21–6
INDQ3 5:31768Touchdown28–6
PHIQ3 1:461-6Turnover28–6
INDQ3 1:3246Missed field goal28–6
PHIQ4 14:1037Punt28–6
INDQ4 13:2739Punt28–6
PHIQ4 11:01510Turnover on downs28–6
INDQ4 9:27556Touchdown35–6
PHIQ4 6:29958Touchdown35–13
INDQ4 3:3536Punt35–13
PHIQ4 3:021075End of half35–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning18/2331930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Mungro281144.12
Peyton Manning2115.50
Autry Denson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison681372
Reggie Wayne661211
James Mungro22200
Marcus Pollard11180
Qadry Ismail12130
Troy Walters12100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb27/4728110
Dorsey Levens0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb7628.90
Dorsey Levens7446.30
Duce Staley6152.50
Brian Westbrook1-1-1.00
Todd Pinkston1-15-15.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman77840
Todd Pinkston37570
Duce Staley49390
Chad Lewis44360
Brian Westbrook22250
Freddie Mitchell24200
Cecil Martin3590
James Thrash1790
Jeff Thomason1221
Donovan McNabb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.02