Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.004
- 44.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.5%Third-down rate39.3%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.70Points / drive1.81
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/23 | 319 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 28 | 114 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 8 | 137 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 6 | 121 | 1 |
| James Mungro | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 27/47 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | -15 | -15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02