2010 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

24·26

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapEagles
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.078
  • 47.2%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.029
  • 6.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +3.98CPOE+4.09
  • 44.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.97
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11PHI @ IND17–16PHI
2018 · W3IND @ PHI16–20PHI
2014 · W2PHI @ IND30–27PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
2002 · W10IND @ PHI35–13IND
1999 · W11IND @ PHI44–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00372Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 13:1420Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 12:5334Field goal0–10
INDQ1 11:23832Punt0–10
PHIQ1 5:41887Field goal0–13
INDQ1 2:111377Touchdown7–13
PHIQ2 11:58955Field goal7–16
INDQ2 6:251164Touchdown14–16
PHIQ2 1:5832Punt14–16
INDQ2 1:04631Field goal17–16
PHIQ2 0:0300End of half17–16
INDQ3 15:0035Punt17–16
PHIQ3 14:0633Punt17–16
INDQ3 12:3033Punt17–16
PHIQ3 11:01727Field goal17–19
INDQ3 7:28735Punt17–19
PHIQ3 4:081190Touchdown17–26
INDQ4 13:4756Punt17–26
PHIQ4 12:451244Punt17–26
INDQ4 5:571670Touchdown24–26
PHIQ4 1:50419Punt24–26
INDQ4 0:40515Turnover24–26
PHIQ4 0:0600End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/5129412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown15503.30
Javarris James4123.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme11171081
Reggie Wayne1116830
Donald Brown33470
Blair White35420
Pierre Garcon27150
Gijon Robinson0200
Austin Collie11-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick17/2921810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16955.90
Mike Vick10747.41
DeSean Jackson3206.70
Jerome Harrison263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson781091
Jeremy Maclin48480
Jason Avant25410
LeSean McCoy3480
Brent Celek0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.24