Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.078
- 47.2%Success rate44.2%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.029
- 6.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- +3.98CPOE+4.09
- 44.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.12Points / drive1.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/51 | 294 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 11 | 17 | 108 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 11 | 16 | 83 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Blair White | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/29 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 7 | 8 | 109 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.24