2018 · Week 3

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

16·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapEagles
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.037
  • 48.0%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.63CPOE+5.11
  • 50.5%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.01
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11PHI @ IND17–16PHI
2014 · W2PHI @ IND30–27PHI
2010 · W9IND @ PHI24–26PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
2002 · W10IND @ PHI35–13IND
1999 · W11IND @ PHI44–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–PHI
INDQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:211279Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 7:1032Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:33624Missed field goal0–7
INDQ1 2:16722Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 0:24612Punt7–7
INDQ2 12:12635Punt7–7
PHIQ2 9:451197Field goal7–10
INDQ2 3:0554Punt7–10
PHIQ2 1:40518End of half7–10
PHIQ3 15:0036Punt7–10
INDQ3 13:16848Field goal10–10
PHIQ3 9:4110Turnover10–10
INDQ3 9:30414Field goal13–10
PHIQ3 8:231275Field goal13–13
INDQ3 2:5035Punt13–13
PHIQ3 1:163-6Turnover13–13
INDQ3 0:2033Field goal16–13
PHIQ4 14:202065Touchdown16–20
INDQ4 3:021037Turnover on downs16–20
PHIQ4 1:1339Punt16–20
INDQ4 0:43735End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck25/4016410
Jacoby Brissett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andrew Luck13333.00
Jordan Wilkins6193.20
Nyheim Hines5183.60
Marcus Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton510500
Ryan Grant35351
Eric Ebron511330
Nyheim Hines55250
Chester Rogers24140
Erik Swoope1170
Zach Pascal1230
Jordan Wilkins2210

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3725511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood10565.61
Corey Clement16563.50
Josh Adams6305.00
Carson Wentz3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz510730
Dallas Goedert77731
Wendell Smallwood35350
Nelson Agholor45240
Jordan Matthews22210
Corey Clement34190
Josh Perkins14100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81