Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.037
- 48.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.63CPOE+5.11
- 50.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.25Points / drive2.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 25/40 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/37 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81