2022 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

17·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Sam Ehlinger

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-3.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapColts
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.154
  • 47.9%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.139
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.181
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.05CPOE-1.42
  • 46.2%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 2.43Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. IND are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W3IND @ PHI16–20PHI
2014 · W2PHI @ IND30–27PHI
2010 · W9IND @ PHI24–26PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
2002 · W10IND @ PHI35–13IND
1999 · W11IND @ PHI44–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–IND
INDQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:37522Punt0–7
INDQ1 6:4839Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:22968Punt0–7
INDQ1 0:10621Punt0–7
PHIQ2 11:581462Field goal3–7
INDQ2 4:50621Punt3–7
PHIQ2 2:3338Punt3–7
INDQ2 1:43422Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 0:1300End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:001-3Turnover3–10
INDQ3 14:49310Field goal3–13
PHIQ3 13:141038Turnover on downs3–13
INDQ3 8:5646Punt3–13
PHIQ3 6:3238Punt3–13
INDQ3 4:57833Missed field goal3–13
PHIQ3 0:35654Touchdown10–13
INDQ4 13:31532Turnover10–13
PHIQ4 10:48323Turnover10–13
INDQ4 9:341042Field goal10–16
PHIQ4 4:371236Touchdown17–16
INDQ4 1:20613Turnover on downs17–16
PHIQ4 0:3100End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2519010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts16865.41
Miles Sanders13473.60
Boston Scott382.70
Kenny Gainwell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith69780
A.J. Brown57600
Quez Watkins22311
Zach Pascal1190
Jack Stoll1170
Boston Scott2240
Miles Sanders1110

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3221300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor22843.81
Zack Moss273.50
Deon Jackson177.00
Matt Ryan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman67750
Parris Campbell56670
Alec Pierce38280
Kylen Granson11160
Mo Alie-Cox11140
Jonathan Taylor34100
Deon Jackson4430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.76
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.82