Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.154
- 47.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.139
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.181
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.05CPOE-1.42
- 46.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 2.43Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. IND are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/25 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/32 | 213 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.76
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.82