2014 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

30·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapColts
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.029
  • 43.7%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.221
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.76CPOE+1.10
  • 44.2%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.01
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. IND are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11PHI @ IND17–16PHI
2018 · W3IND @ PHI16–20PHI
2010 · W9IND @ PHI24–26PHI
2006 · W12PHI @ IND21–45IND
2002 · W10IND @ PHI35–13IND
1999 · W11IND @ PHI44–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–IND
INDQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:331069Field goal3–0
INDQ1 9:48972Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 5:18460Missed field goal3–7
INDQ1 4:161034Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 13:18619Punt3–10
INDQ2 10:4430Punt3–10
PHIQ2 10:171158Field goal6–10
INDQ2 6:361053Touchdown6–17
PHIQ2 1:13427Turnover6–17
INDQ2 0:3200End of half6–17
PHIQ3 15:0030Punt6–17
INDQ3 13:5938Punt6–17
PHIQ3 12:25530Punt6–17
INDQ3 10:28947Field goal6–20
PHIQ3 6:43845Touchdown13–20
INDQ3 4:3211Turnover13–20
PHIQ3 4:26641Touchdown20–20
INDQ3 2:441280Touchdown20–27
PHIQ4 11:4936Punt20–27
INDQ4 10:17841Turnover20–27
PHIQ4 5:08561Touchdown27–27
INDQ4 3:2535Punt27–27
PHIQ4 1:56342Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/3733111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19794.21
Darren Sproles4266.51
Nick Foles4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles771520
Zach Ertz46860
Jeremy Maclin411451
LeSean McCoy45230
Jordan Matthews14170
Riley Cooper1380
Brent Celek0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck20/3417231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson21793.80
Ahmad Bradshaw13705.40
Andrew Luck4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton611650
Reggie Wayne37280
Ahmad Bradshaw55262
Trent Richardson11160
Donte Moncrief11160
Coby Fleener11130
Jack Doyle22121
Dwayne Allen0100
Hakeem Nicks13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.25