Closing spread
IND -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.029
- 43.7%Success rate45.9%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.221
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.76CPOE+1.10
- 44.2%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.88Points / drive2.01
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. IND are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/37 | 331 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 7 | 152 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 20/34 | 172 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 26 | 2 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.25