Closing spread
IND -10
Total
44
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.153
- 43.0%Success rate51.4%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.043
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.03CPOE+4.70
- 42.8%Third-down rate56.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.67Points / drive2.54
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. IND are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/23 | 140 | 2 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 4/5 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 20 | 124 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/20 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 24 | 171 | 7.1 | 4 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18