Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.013
- 37.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.079
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 34.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.17Points / drive1.25
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 15/36 | 178 | 0 | 5 |
| Damon Huard | 4/5 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Pritchett | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Yatil Green | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nate Jacquet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 16/29 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 31 | 103 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 6 | 125 | 1 |
| Jason Tucker | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57