1999 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

0·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 57°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

38

Model margin

+4.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.116EPA / play-0.013
  • 37.3%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.186EPA / rush-0.079
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 34.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.25
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16DAL @ MIA20–22MIA
2019 · W3MIA @ DAL6–31DAL
2015 · W11DAL @ MIA24–14DAL
2011 · W12MIA @ DAL19–20DAL
2007 · W2DAL @ MIA37–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DAL
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:0639Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:12949Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 6:07622Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 3:14824Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:441356Turnover0–0
DALQ2 8:04614Punt0–0
MIAQ2 4:433-1Punt0–0
DALQ2 3:0638Punt0–0
MIAQ2 2:01523Missed field goal0–0
DALQ2 1:03721Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ2 0:2634End of half0–0
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt0–0
DALQ3 12:47618Punt0–0
MIAQ3 8:45521Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ3 7:0800Opp touchdown0–7
MIAQ3 7:0833Punt0–7
DALQ3 6:0532Punt0–7
MIAQ3 4:33541Missed field goal0–7
DALQ3 2:27849Field goal0–10
MIAQ4 11:47543Turnover0–10
DALQ4 10:34655Turnover0–10
MIAQ4 7:2620Turnover0–10
DALQ4 7:15263Touchdown0–17
MIAQ4 6:2434Turnover0–17
DALQ4 5:28613Field goal0–20
MIAQ4 1:57741Turnover on downs0–20
DALQ4 0:2300End of half0–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino15/3617805
Damon Huard4/54400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Johnson19633.30
Damon Huard166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stanley Pritchett59590
Yatil Green34470
Tony Martin38470
Oronde Gadsden35390
Troy Drayton23200
J.J. Johnson1230
Nate Jacquet0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman16/2923210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith311033.30
Troy Aikman2-1-0.50
Ernie Mills1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail561251
Jason Tucker24350
Mike Lucky22150
David LaFleur12130
Ernie Mills15110
Eric Bjornson11100
Chris Warren1180
Wane McGarity1430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.57