Closing spread
DAL -22
Total
46.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.111
- 41.5%Success rate48.7%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.017
- 6.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.66CPOE+1.10
- 35.1%Third-down rate47.2%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.62Points / drive2.45
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 18/39 | 200 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2/2 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Williams | 4 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/32 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 125 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 7 | 88 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.68