2019 · Week 3

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Josh Rosen

6·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -22

Total

46.5

Model margin

+8.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.5%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.268EPA / rush-0.017
  • 6.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.66CPOE+1.10
  • 35.1%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.45
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16DAL @ MIA20–22MIA
2015 · W11DAL @ MIA24–14DAL
2011 · W12MIA @ DAL19–20DAL
2007 · W2DAL @ MIA37–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA
1999 · W12MIA @ DAL0–20DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DAL
MIAQ1 15:00646Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 13:20753Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 10:2732Punt0–3
DALQ1 9:231064Touchdown0–10
MIAQ1 5:57972Field goal3–10
DALQ1 0:53313Turnover3–10
MIAQ2 14:4434Punt3–10
DALQ2 13:50618Punt3–10
MIAQ2 10:33949Field goal6–10
DALQ2 5:48617Punt6–10
MIAQ2 3:091045Turnover6–10
DALQ2 0:25539End of half6–10
DALQ3 15:00675Touchdown6–17
MIAQ3 12:2857Punt6–17
DALQ3 8:581086Touchdown6–24
MIAQ3 3:3037Punt6–24
DALQ3 1:5139Punt6–24
MIAQ4 14:496-1Punt6–24
DALQ4 12:39963Missed field goal6–24
MIAQ4 7:54816Turnover on downs6–24
DALQ4 5:27640Touchdown6–31
MIAQ4 3:45836Turnover on downs6–31
DALQ4 0:3800End of half6–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen18/3920000
Ryan Fitzpatrick2/22900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake12383.20
Kalen Ballage8172.10
Josh Rosen3134.30
Jakeem Grant144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Williams412680
DeVante Parker36560
Kenyan Drake36340
Jakeem Grant47270
Nick O'Leary11190
Kalen Ballage13100
Mike Gesicki3390
Allen Hurns1260
Durham Smythe0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3224621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott191256.60
Tony Pollard131037.91
Dak Prescott273.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper67882
Jason Witten34540
Devin Smith25390
Tony Pollard33250
Randall Cobb24230
Ezekiel Elliott23140
Blake Jarwin1330
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +225.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.4%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.68