2023 · Week 16

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

20·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapDolphins
  • +0.121EPA / play+0.095
  • 48.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +3.68CPOE+4.40
  • 49.6%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.34
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W3MIA @ DAL6–31DAL
2015 · W11DAL @ MIA24–14DAL
2011 · W12MIA @ DAL19–20DAL
2007 · W2DAL @ MIA37–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA
1999 · W12MIA @ DAL0–20DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIA
DALQ1 15:001579Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 7:17964Field goal0–3
DALQ1 2:50375Touchdown7–3
MIAQ1 1:301270Turnover on downs7–3
DALQ2 11:0272Punt7–3
MIAQ2 7:21531Field goal7–6
DALQ2 4:3137Punt7–6
MIAQ2 2:23966Touchdown7–13
DALQ2 0:1700End of half7–13
MIAQ3 15:00415Punt7–13
DALQ3 12:4331Punt7–13
MIAQ3 11:53424Field goal7–16
DALQ3 8:59655Field goal10–16
MIAQ3 5:28858Field goal10–19
DALQ3 1:241055Field goal13–19
MIAQ4 12:313-2Punt13–19
DALQ4 11:061866Touchdown20–19
MIAQ4 3:27951Field goal20–22

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3225320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12383.20
Dak Prescott5255.00
CeeDee Lamb2147.00
Brandin Cooks199.00
Rico Dowdle242.00
KaVontae Turpin144.00
Hunter Luepke231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb6101181
Jalen Tolbert22510
Jake Ferguson48450
Brandin Cooks22141
Hunter Luepke1180
Tony Pollard1150
Michael Gallup2240
KaVontae Turpin1140
Luke Schoonmaker1140
Rico Dowdle0200
Peyton Hendershot0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa24/3729310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert11464.20
De'Von Achane7243.40
Jeff Wilson5214.20
Jaylen Waddle122.00
Tua Tagovailoa2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill914990
Durham Smythe55560
Jaylen Waddle14500
Cedrick Wilson Jr.35420
Robbie Chosen11190
De'Von Achane1370
Raheem Mostert1141
Jeff Wilson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.20