Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play+0.095
- 48.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- +3.68CPOE+4.40
- 49.6%Third-down rate42.5%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.67Points / drive2.34
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/32 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 118 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 24/37 | 293 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 14 | 99 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.20