Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.047
- 39.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +2.28CPOE+4.08
- 33.1%Third-down rate39.2%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.63Points / drive1.79
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 19/32 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/34 | 226 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Robinson | 7 | 13 | 79 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04