2011 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

19·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.047
  • 39.0%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +2.28CPOE+4.08
  • 33.1%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.79
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16DAL @ MIA20–22MIA
2019 · W3MIA @ DAL6–31DAL
2015 · W11DAL @ MIA24–14DAL
2007 · W2DAL @ MIA37–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA
1999 · W12MIA @ DAL0–20DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DAL
DALQ1 15:00616Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 12:0237Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:1233Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:4743Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:08311Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 4:46418Field goal3–0
DALQ1 2:42739Punt3–0
MIAQ2 13:55765Missed field goal3–0
DALQ2 9:40948Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 4:3834Punt3–3
DALQ2 3:0036Punt3–3
MIAQ2 1:4531Turnover3–9
DALQ2 1:0115Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 0:55726Field goal6–10
MIAQ3 15:001181Field goal9–10
DALQ3 8:02418Punt9–10
MIAQ3 6:14579Touchdown16–10
DALQ3 3:54982Touchdown16–17
MIAQ4 14:311467Field goal19–17
DALQ4 7:14521Punt19–17
MIAQ4 4:4731Punt19–17
DALQ4 2:59856Field goal19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore19/3228810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush16613.80
Daniel Thomas6254.20
Matt Moore331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall5111031
Brian Hartline45770
Reggie Bush34350
Anthony Fasano22320
Davone Bess24290
Clyde Gates11110
Daniel Thomas1120
Charles Clay12-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3422622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray22874.00
Tony Romo1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laurent Robinson713792
Jason Witten45430
DeMarco Murray44410
Dez Bryant36350
John Phillips22160
Martellus Bennett1280
Felix Jones1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04