Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.032
- 43.9%Success rate40.5%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.85CPOE+1.20
- 34.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.42
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/28 | 227 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 29 | 129 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 4 | 79 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/24 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20