2015 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapDolphins
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.032
  • 43.9%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.85CPOE+1.20
  • 34.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.42
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16DAL @ MIA20–22MIA
2019 · W3MIA @ DAL6–31DAL
2011 · W12MIA @ DAL19–20DAL
2007 · W2DAL @ MIA37–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA
1999 · W12MIA @ DAL0–20DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:18312Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:3335Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:091568Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 1:1344Opp touchdown7–0
MIAQ2 14:55523Punt7–0
DALQ2 12:5336Punt7–0
MIAQ2 11:1838Punt7–0
DALQ2 9:3814104Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 1:08459Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 0:1600End of half14–7
DALQ3 15:00535Turnover14–7
MIAQ3 12:15627Punt14–7
DALQ3 8:4038Punt14–7
MIAQ3 7:13558Touchdown14–14
DALQ3 5:20990Touchdown21–14
MIAQ4 14:5546Punt21–14
DALQ4 12:55610Field goal24–14
MIAQ4 9:09427Punt24–14
DALQ4 6:291254Turnover on downs24–14
MIAQ4 1:044-30Turnover on downs24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/2822722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden291294.40
Robert Turbin7355.00
Tony Romo221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams44791
Dez Bryant49451
Jason Witten23270
Darren McFadden33200
Gavin Escobar23200
Devin Street11190
Cole Beasley13140
Robert Turbin1230

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2418821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller7446.30
Ryan Tannehill3134.30
Jay Ajayi4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry47660
Kenny Stills22521
Jay Ajayi22230
Jordan Cameron25211
Rishard Matthews13150
Lamar Miller23110
Greg Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.20