Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.078
- 45.8%Success rate40.4%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.58CPOE-3.12
- 43.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/29 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/40 | 287 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jesse Chatman | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.54