2007 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

37·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Trent Green

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapDolphins
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.078
  • 45.8%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.58CPOE-3.12
  • 43.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.36
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16DAL @ MIA20–22MIA
2019 · W3MIA @ DAL6–31DAL
2015 · W11DAL @ MIA24–14DAL
2011 · W12MIA @ DAL19–20DAL
2003 · W13MIA @ DAL40–21MIA
1999 · W12MIA @ DAL0–20DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIA
DALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:531144Field goal0–3
DALQ1 7:031257Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 0:0320Turnover3–3
DALQ2 14:53933Punt3–3
MIAQ2 10:2132Punt3–3
DALQ2 8:221375Touchdown10–3
MIAQ2 1:541055Field goal10–6
DALQ2 0:0500End of half10–6
MIAQ3 15:001073Touchdown10–13
DALQ3 9:41513Punt10–13
MIAQ3 7:5538Punt10–13
DALQ3 5:55418Touchdown17–13
MIAQ3 4:41316Turnover17–13
DALQ3 3:4435Field goal20–13
MIAQ3 2:10224Turnover20–13
DALQ3 1:16939Field goal23–13
MIAQ4 11:00311Punt23–13
DALQ4 9:17421Punt23–13
MIAQ4 6:16219Turnover23–13
DALQ4 5:44439Touchdown30–13
MIAQ4 4:01435Touchdown30–20
DALQ4 3:26140Touchdown37–20
MIAQ4 3:1720Turnover37–20
DALQ4 2:5346Turnover on downs37–20
MIAQ4 1:45647End of half37–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo14/2918620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14896.42
Tony Romo4369.00
Julius Jones15322.10
Terrell Owens155.00
Tyson Thompson242.00

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green23/4028724

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown11333.00
Jesse Chatman3279.00
Trent Green591.80
Ted Ginn1-3-3.00
Chris Chambers1-5-5.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.54