Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.085
- 39.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.23
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/20 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 31 | 104 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 24/40 | 288 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07