Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.085
- 39.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.8%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.23
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. DAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:24 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:18 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 4:50 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:24 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:19 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:04 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q2 2:44 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 23–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 30–14 |
| DAL | Q3 13:17 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 30–14 |
| MIA | Q3 11:59 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 30–14 |
| DAL | Q3 10:02 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 30–14 |
| MIA | Q3 8:30 | 2 | 40 | Touchdown | 37–14 |
| DAL | Q3 7:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 37–14 |
| MIA | Q3 6:30 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 37–14 |
| DAL | Q3 4:08 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 37–14 |
| MIA | Q3 1:48 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 40–14 |
| DAL | Q4 13:57 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 40–21 |
| MIA | Q4 12:22 | 11 | 36 | Punt | 40–21 |
| DAL | Q4 4:59 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 40–21 |
| MIA | Q4 2:50 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 40–21 |
| DAL | Q4 1:16 | 6 | 56 | Turnover | 40–21 |
| MIA | Q4 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 40–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/20 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 31 | 104 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 24/40 | 288 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07