Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.084
- 38.9%Success rate38.6%
- +0.047EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.207
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- 34.6%Third-down rate35.7%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.28Points / drive1.14
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 31/48 | 284 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 10 | 14 | 98 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 7 | 11 | 84 | 2 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/29 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Montgomery | 38 | 111 | 2.9 | 1 |
| David Patten | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 6 | 9 | 181 | 3 |
| Ike Hilliard | 6 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94