2015 · Week 13

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

23·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapGiants
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.025
  • 41.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.27CPOE-1.12
  • 40.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.02
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NYJ @ NYG13–10NYJ
2019 · W10NYG @ NYJ27–34NYJ
2011 · W16NYG @ NYJ29–14NYG
2007 · W5NYJ @ NYG24–35NYG
2003 · W9NYG @ NYJ31–28NYG
1999 · W13NYJ @ NYG28–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NYG
NYJQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:2730Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:201078Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 5:47529Punt3–0
NYJQ1 3:45618Opp touchdown3–7
NYJQ2 14:3934Punt3–7
NYGQ2 13:26419Punt3–7
NYJQ2 11:0612Turnover3–7
NYGQ2 10:5638Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 8:58994Touchdown10–10
NYGQ2 3:21380Touchdown10–17
NYJQ2 2:1336Punt10–17
NYGQ2 1:42550Field goal10–20
NYJQ2 0:30312End of half10–20
NYGQ3 15:001045Punt10–20
NYJQ3 10:35729Punt10–20
NYGQ3 5:032176Turnover10–20
NYJQ4 8:421180Field goal13–20
NYGQ4 4:2434Punt13–20
NYJQ4 2:401071Touchdown20–20
NYGQ4 0:27211End of half20–20
NYJOT1266Field goal23–20
NYGOT733Missed field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick36/5039020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory10474.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick5224.40
Bilal Powell6172.80
Stevan Ridley341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall12131311
Eric Decker8121010
Bilal Powell813911
Quincy Enunwa24370
Chris Ivory55220
Kellen Davis1380

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3429711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa8232.90
Andre Williams6223.70
Rashad Jennings5142.80
Shane Vereen4133.30
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.6111491
Will Tye34700
Rueben Randle26220
Rashad Jennings12190
Orleans Darkwa12100
Dwayne Harris1280
Hakeem Nicks1170
Shane Vereen2370
Myles White1250
Andre Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.29