Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.025
- 41.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.27CPOE-1.12
- 40.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.90Points / drive2.02
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 36/50 | 390 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 12 | 13 | 131 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 8 | 12 | 101 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 13 | 91 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/34 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 11 | 149 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29