2019 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

27·34

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapJets
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.155
  • 41.8%Success rate37.3%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.216
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -1.92CPOE+0.20
  • 37.8%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.20
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYJ are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NYJ @ NYG13–10NYJ
2015 · W13NYJ @ NYG23–20NYJ
2011 · W16NYG @ NYJ29–14NYG
2007 · W5NYJ @ NYG24–35NYG
2003 · W9NYG @ NYJ31–28NYG
1999 · W13NYJ @ NYG28–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001471Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:213-10Punt0–7
NYJQ1 5:40950Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 1:351050Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 12:266-9Punt7–14
NYGQ2 9:29856Touchdown13–14
NYJQ2 5:24411Punt13–14
NYGQ2 3:3549Turnover on downs13–14
NYJQ2 1:5433Missed field goal13–14
NYGQ2 1:2532Punt13–14
NYJQ2 0:1400End of half13–14
NYGQ3 15:0030Opp touchdown13–21
NYGQ3 14:13675Touchdown19–21
NYJQ3 11:513-1Punt19–21
NYGQ3 10:221069Touchdown27–21
NYJQ3 5:21846Field goal27–24
NYGQ3 1:423-8Punt27–24
NYJQ3 0:53437Touchdown27–31
NYGQ4 14:52619Punt27–31
NYJQ4 12:03776Field goal27–34
NYGQ4 7:3668Punt27–34
NYJQ4 4:5039Punt27–34
NYGQ4 4:173-4Punt27–34
NYJQ4 2:4032Punt27–34
NYGQ4 0:18315Turnover27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones26/4030840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones3206.70
Wayne Gallman122.00
Saquon Barkley1310.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton10151212
Golden Tate48952
Rhett Ellison33420
Saquon Barkley55300
Bennie Fowler23160
Wayne Gallman1230
Kaden Smith1110
Cody Latimer0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold19/3023010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18341.91
Sam Darnold3258.31
Bilal Powell7152.10
Trevon Wesco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas69840
Jamison Crowder56811
Le'Veon Bell44340
Trevon Wesco11150
Robbie Chosen13110
Chris Herndon1270
Vyncint Smith0100
Ryan Griffin11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.90