Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.155
- 41.8%Success rate37.3%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.216
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- -1.92CPOE+0.20
- 37.8%Third-down rate30.8%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.56Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYJ are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 26/40 | 308 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 10 | 15 | 121 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 19/30 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 34 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.90