Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.038
- 41.4%Success rate44.2%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.008
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.41CPOE-5.32
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.32Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/36 | 229 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/25 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22