Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.072
- 44.0%Success rate40.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.088
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.53CPOE-3.75
- 38.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.84Points / drive1.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYJ are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 9/27 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 8 | 164 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 30/59 | 258 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 8 | 18 | 77 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Baker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22