2011 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

29·14

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapJets
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.0%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.088
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +1.53CPOE-3.75
  • 38.3%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.44
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYJ are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NYJ @ NYG13–10NYJ
2019 · W10NYG @ NYJ27–34NYJ
2015 · W13NYJ @ NYG23–20NYJ
2007 · W5NYJ @ NYG24–35NYG
2003 · W9NYG @ NYJ31–28NYG
1999 · W13NYJ @ NYG28–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NYJ
NYGQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:381148Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:563-2Punt0–7
NYJQ1 6:34517Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:29617Punt0–7
NYJQ1 2:3639Punt0–7
NYGQ1 0:11853Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 11:51945Punt3–7
NYGQ2 6:1535Punt3–7
NYJQ2 4:4335Punt3–7
NYGQ2 2:37399Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 2:121261Missed field goal10–7
NYJQ3 15:0030Punt10–7
NYGQ3 14:2532Punt10–7
NYJQ3 12:45511Punt10–7
NYGQ3 10:0239Punt10–7
NYJQ3 9:05629Punt10–7
NYGQ3 5:57414Punt10–7
NYJQ3 3:56419Punt10–7
NYGQ3 1:59481Touchdown17–7
NYJQ3 0:1331Turnover17–7
NYGQ4 14:463-4Field goal20–7
NYJQ4 13:181556Turnover20–7
NYGQ4 8:5310Turnover20–7
NYJQ4 8:43520Touchdown20–14
NYGQ4 7:1732Punt20–14
NYJQ4 5:393-4Punt20–14
NYGQ4 4:55628Punt22–14
NYJQ4 2:241-8Safety22–14
NYGQ4 2:13119Touchdown29–14
NYJQ4 2:04622Turnover29–14
NYGQ4 0:4000End of half29–14

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning9/2722511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15543.62
Brandon Jacobs7426.00
D.J. Ware3206.70
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz381641
Hakeem Nicks17200
Brandon Jacobs11130
Devin Thomas11110
Ahmad Bradshaw1180
D.J. Ware1250
Ramses Barden1540
Travis Beckum0100
Jerrel Jernigan0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez30/5925812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene14584.10
LaDainian Tomlinson5295.80
Mark Sanchez4133.31
Jeremy Kerley166.00
Santonio Holmes1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller818770
Santonio Holmes49500
LaDainian Tomlinson69360
Jeremy Kerley58360
Plaxico Burress36340
Shonn Greene34200
Josh Baker1151
Joe McKnight0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.22