Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.013
- 41.7%Success rate41.4%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 32.9%Third-down rate40.0%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.47
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYJ are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/40 | 303 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 27/45 | 281 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 28 | 108 | 3.9 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
6.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.42