Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
35
Model margin
+4.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play-0.165
- 35.6%Success rate38.2%
- -0.250EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.205
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- -5.18CPOE+0.19
- 25.5%Third-down rate30.9%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.01Points / drive1.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 17/36 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 13 | 100 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 4/7 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 2/7 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 36 | 128 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.55
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.12