2023 · Week 8

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

13·10

Giants

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

35

Model margin

+4.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapGiants
  • -0.230EPA / play-0.165
  • 35.6%Success rate38.2%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.205
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -5.18CPOE+0.19
  • 25.5%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. NYG are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W10NYG @ NYJ27–34NYJ
2015 · W13NYJ @ NYG23–20NYJ
2011 · W16NYG @ NYJ29–14NYG
2007 · W5NYJ @ NYG24–35NYG
2003 · W9NYG @ NYJ31–28NYG
1999 · W13NYJ @ NYG28–41NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NYG
NYJQ1 15:0041Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 13:3336Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 12:0735Punt0–3
NYGQ1 10:1833Punt0–3
NYJQ1 8:2939Punt0–3
NYGQ1 6:1334Punt0–3
NYJQ1 4:49515Punt0–3
NYGQ1 3:0137Punt6–3
NYJQ1 1:18150Touchdown7–3
NYGQ1 1:06631Missed field goal7–3
NYJQ2 12:4338Punt7–3
NYGQ2 11:3557Punt7–3
NYJQ2 10:01518Punt7–3
NYGQ2 8:0737Punt7–3
NYJQ2 6:31419Punt7–3
NYGQ2 3:4939Punt7–3
NYJQ2 2:2810Turnover7–3
NYGQ2 2:2432Punt7–3
NYJQ2 1:1132Punt7–3
NYGQ2 0:413-2Punt7–3
NYGQ3 15:001355Touchdown7–10
NYJQ3 8:5955Punt7–10
NYGQ3 6:2333Punt7–10
NYJQ3 4:5839Punt7–10
NYGQ3 3:24415Punt7–10
NYJQ3 0:3639Punt7–10
NYGQ4 14:0834Punt7–10
NYJQ4 11:53526Punt7–10
NYGQ4 9:211035Punt7–10
NYJQ4 2:3871Turnover on downs7–10
NYGQ4 1:2639Missed field goal7–10
NYJQ4 0:24258Field goal10–10
NYGOT4-1Punt10–10
NYJOT616Field goal13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson17/3624010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson4256.30
Breece Hall12171.40
Garrett Wilson166.00
Dalvin Cook252.50
Xavier Gipson133.00
Michael Carter221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson7131000
Breece Hall69761
Allen Lazard36450
C.J. Uzomah11190
Tyler Conklin0200
Michael Carter0100
Jeremy Ruckert0100
Xavier Gipson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor4/7800
Tommy DeVito2/7-100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley361283.60
Tyrod Taylor5336.60
Wan'Dale Robinson2178.50
Matt Breida5132.60
Tommy DeVito4123.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller1240
Matt Breida1140
Saquon Barkley3500
Daniel Bellinger0100
Wan'Dale Robinson0100
Darius Slayton12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

6.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.55
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.12