1999 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jeff George

28·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

42

Model margin

+3.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.027
  • 44.6%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.128EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.01
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.134

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5KC @ MIN27–20KC
2019 · W9MIN @ KC23–26KC
2015 · W6KC @ MIN10–16MIN
2011 · W4MIN @ KC17–22KC
2007 · W3MIN @ KC10–13KC
2003 · W16KC @ MIN20–45MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–KC
MINQ1 15:00310Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:26947Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 8:426-2Punt0–7
KCQ1 6:11662Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 3:0938Punt0–14
KCQ1 1:18623Touchdown6–21
MINQ2 13:2900Touchdown7–21
KCQ2 13:01745Missed field goal7–21
MINQ2 10:54736Missed field goal7–21
KCQ2 8:0139Punt7–21
MINQ2 6:2444Punt7–21
KCQ2 4:3434Punt7–21
MINQ2 3:05659—8–21
KCQ2 0:4017—14–21
MINQ2 0:2918Touchdown14–21
KCQ2 0:26428End of half14–21
KCQ3 15:00941Turnover14–21
MINQ3 11:071384Touchdown21–21
KCQ3 4:34625Punt21–21
MINQ3 1:06749Punt21–21
KCQ4 12:14420Punt21–21
KCQ4 10:2310Turnover21–21
MINQ4 10:20525Opp touchdown21–28
KCQ4 8:0100Opp touchdown21–28
MINQ4 8:011045Turnover21–28
KCQ4 4:02521Opp touchdown28–28
MINQ4 1:3800Opp touchdown28–28
KCQ4 1:38948Field goal28–31
MINQ4 0:0300End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George13/2219020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith211185.60
Leroy Hoard11353.20
Randy Moss11515.00
Jeff George273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss59761
Jake Reed36410
Matt Hatchette22301
Cris Carter12220
Robert Smith22210

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac19/2921520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Morris6335.50
Mike Cloud8263.30
Elvis Grbac221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn46650
Tony Gonzalez69632
Kevin Lockett34360
Derrick Alexander35210
Andre Rison23210
Lonnie Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.00