Closing spread
KC -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.027
- 44.6%Success rate38.7%
- +0.128EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 44.4%Third-down rate39.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.72Points / drive1.01
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.134
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 13/22 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 21 | 118 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 19/29 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 9 | 63 | 2 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.00