Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play-0.094
- 39.2%Success rate38.8%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.80CPOE-1.61
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.7%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
- 1.60Points / drive1.06
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/30 | 202 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 67 | 16.8 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 18/29 | 260 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 5 | 91 | 0 |
| Keary Colbert | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75