2011 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Donovan McNabb

17·22

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

40

Model margin

+1.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.054EPA / play-0.094
  • 39.2%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -5.80CPOE-1.61
  • 38.8%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate38.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.06
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5KC @ MIN27–20KC
2019 · W9MIN @ KC23–26KC
2015 · W6KC @ MIN10–16MIN
2007 · W3MIN @ KC10–13KC
2003 · W16KC @ MIN20–45MIN
1999 · W14MIN @ KC28–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–KC
MINQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:121221Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:161095Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 1:47625Punt7–3
MINQ2 13:381166Turnover7–3
KCQ2 7:47659Field goal7–6
MINQ2 5:15522Punt7–6
KCQ2 2:221147Field goal7–9
KCQ3 15:0039Punt7–9
MINQ3 13:05731Field goal10–9
KCQ3 9:15857Field goal10–12
MINQ3 5:1844Punt10–12
KCQ3 4:01756Field goal10–15
MINQ3 0:0934Punt10–15
KCQ4 14:37259Touchdown10–22
MINQ4 13:511370Touchdown17–22
KCQ4 5:5037Punt17–22
MINQ4 4:07844Turnover on downs17–22
KCQ4 1:38311End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/3020221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson23803.50
Percy Harvin46716.80
Toby Gerhart242.00
Donovan McNabb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Visanthe Shiancoe68580
Kyle Rudolph34440
Percy Harvin57420
Devin Aromashodu12341
Bernard Berrian16200
Adrian Peterson1130
Michael Jenkins1111
Toby Gerhart0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel18/2926010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones11373.40
Dexter McCluster7263.70
Jackie Battle5224.40
Matt Cassel4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe591071
Steve Breaston45910
Keary Colbert34330
Dexter McCluster34120
Jake O'Connell1160
Leonard Pope1140
Jackie Battle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75