2023 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

27·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapVikings
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.025
  • 43.8%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.158
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.52CPOE+2.80
  • 44.9%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.84
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. MIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W9MIN @ KC23–26KC
2015 · W6KC @ MIN10–16MIN
2011 · W4MIN @ KC17–22KC
2007 · W3MIN @ KC10–13KC
2003 · W16KC @ MIN20–45MIN
1999 · W14MIN @ KC28–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–MIN
MINQ1 15:00115Turnover0–0
KCQ1 14:50945Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:001348Field goal7–3
KCQ1 4:021155Field goal10–3
MINQ2 12:461138Field goal10–6
KCQ2 8:0234Punt10–6
MINQ2 7:031256Touchdown10–13
KCQ2 1:39858Field goal13–13
KCQ3 15:001175Touchdown20–13
MINQ3 10:1033Punt20–13
KCQ3 9:121358Touchdown27–13
MINQ3 2:451475Touchdown27–20
KCQ4 12:11519Punt27–20
MINQ4 8:551166Turnover on downs27–20
KCQ4 4:49519Punt27–20
MINQ4 1:07628End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes31/4128120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco16553.41
Jerick McKinnon177.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire341.30
Kadarius Toney111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce1011671
Justin Watson23560
Rashee Rice45331
Justyn Ross24280
Kadarius Toney56260
Noah Gray22210
Jerick McKinnon23180
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12120
Skyy Moore22110
Isiah Pacheco1190

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/4728420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison8263.30
Cam Akers5153.00
Ty Chandler11515.00
Brandon Powell199.00
Kirk Cousins351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison69641
T.J. Hockenson58510
K.J. Osborn59490
Brandon Powell46430
Justin Jefferson36280
Alexander Mattison23201
Josh Oliver12150
Johnny Mundt11110
Cam Akers2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.05