Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.025
- 43.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.52CPOE+2.80
- 44.9%Third-down rate37.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. MIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/41 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 11 | 67 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Justyn Ross | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/47 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.05