Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.135
- 42.1%Success rate47.0%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.094
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.53CPOE+1.86
- 44.0%Third-down rate48.7%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.31Points / drive2.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/38 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 25/35 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 12 | 125 | 10.4 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 140 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.96
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.81