2019 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

23·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Moore

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 54°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.135
  • 42.1%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.094
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.53CPOE+1.86
  • 44.0%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5KC @ MIN27–20KC
2015 · W6KC @ MIN10–16MIN
2011 · W4MIN @ KC17–22KC
2007 · W3MIN @ KC10–13KC
2003 · W16KC @ MIN20–45MIN
1999 · W14MIN @ KC28–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–KC
MINQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:3737Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:1239Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:36767Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 8:211365Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 2:5039Punt7–7
MINQ1 0:4239Punt7–7
KCQ2 13:301685Field goal7–10
MINQ2 4:343-5Punt7–10
KCQ2 2:583-6Punt7–10
MINQ2 1:421157Field goal10–10
KCQ2 0:0600End of half10–10
KCQ3 15:0000Touchdown10–10
MINQ3 14:52648Touchdown16–10
KCQ3 11:5138Punt16–10
MINQ3 10:07640Punt16–10
KCQ3 7:01297Touchdown16–17
MINQ3 6:13517Punt16–17
KCQ3 3:28639Field goal16–20
MINQ3 0:301175Touchdown23–20
KCQ4 10:59514Punt23–20
MINQ4 7:4730Punt23–20
KCQ4 6:35738Field goal23–23
MINQ4 2:303-7Punt23–23
KCQ4 1:47319Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/3822030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook21713.40
Stefon Diggs11212.00
Alexander Mattison362.00
Kirk Cousins155.00
Ameer Abdullah122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell35580
Dalvin Cook47450
Irv Smith46330
Kyle Rudolph35231
Ameer Abdullah11161
Stefon Diggs1540
Bisi Johnson1241
Adam Thielen0100
Alexander Mattison0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore25/3527510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams1212510.41
LeSean McCoy393.00
Mecole Hardman177.00
Tyreek Hill155.00
Darrel Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill691401
Sammy Watkins710630
Travis Kelce79620
Demarcus Robinson1250
Damien Williams2230
Blake Bell1120
LeSean McCoy1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.96
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.81