Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.022
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.03CPOE+2.87
- 36.6%Third-down rate39.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.92Points / drive1.94
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. MIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 22/37 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/31 | 249 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 60 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.62