2015 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

10·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapVikings
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.03CPOE+2.87
  • 36.6%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.94
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 5–2 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. MIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5KC @ MIN27–20KC
2019 · W9MIN @ KC23–26KC
2011 · W4MIN @ KC17–22KC
2007 · W3MIN @ KC10–13KC
2003 · W16KC @ MIN20–45MIN
1999 · W14MIN @ KC28–31KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–MIN
MINQ1 15:00971Turnover0–0
KCQ1 10:453-2Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:40848Field goal0–3
KCQ1 5:40813Punt0–3
MINQ1 1:07528Punt0–3
KCQ2 14:0058Punt0–3
MINQ2 10:521240Touchdown0–10
KCQ2 4:4339Punt0–10
MINQ2 2:3532Punt0–10
KCQ2 2:05523Punt0–10
MINQ2 0:5534End of half0–10
KCQ3 15:00834Punt0–10
MINQ3 11:25546Field goal0–13
KCQ3 8:51873Turnover on downs0–13
MINQ3 4:306-1Punt0–13
KCQ3 1:37843Field goal3–13
MINQ4 13:10432Turnover3–13
KCQ4 11:12777Touchdown10–13
MINQ4 8:46953Field goal10–16
KCQ4 4:46238Turnover10–16
MINQ4 4:3233Punt10–16
KCQ4 2:46512Turnover on downs10–16
MINQ4 2:0000End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith22/3728210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West9333.70
Knile Davis5132.60
Alex Smith2105.00
De'Anthony Thomas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce57880
Albert Wilson36571
Jeremy Maclin34480
James O'Shaughnessy23230
Chris Conley37160
Demetrius Harris22150
Knile Davis11120
Charcandrick West1260
Jason Avant1340
De'Anthony Thomas0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/3124912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson26602.30
Matt Asiata5275.40
Jerick McKinnon122.00
Teddy Bridgewater3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs791290
Jarius Wright23690
Mike Wallace29230
Rhett Ellison12110
Kyle Rudolph2591
Matt Asiata1180
Adrian Peterson11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.62