Closing spread
KC -3
Total
54
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.079
- 47.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.163EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.069EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 42.4%Third-down rate46.9%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.96
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. MIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 10:23 | 8 | 61 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:55 | 10 | 52 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:52 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 14:25 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 10:58 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 9:26 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 3:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–21 |
| MIN | Q2 2:53 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–24 |
| MIN | Q3 13:51 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| KC | Q3 11:44 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| MIN | Q3 5:16 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| KC | Q3 4:22 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| MIN | Q3 2:43 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–31 |
| KC | Q3 1:16 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| MIN | Q4 13:33 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 13–31 |
| KC | Q4 11:12 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| MIN | Q4 10:05 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 20–38 |
| KC | Q4 7:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–38 |
| MIN | Q4 6:46 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 20–45 |
| KC | Q4 6:00 | 5 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 20–45 |
| MIN | Q4 4:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–45 |
| KC | Q4 3:19 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 20–45 |
| MIN | Q4 2:28 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 20–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/38 | 224 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/29 | 260 | 3 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 21 | 146 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26