Closing spread
KC -3
Total
34
Model margin
+0.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.132
- 43.2%Success rate37.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.167
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- -0.23CPOE-0.79
- 35.8%Third-down rate34.0%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.51Points / drive0.94
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44 points. KC are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 14/28 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 20/29 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 42 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26