1999 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Danny Kanell

17·30

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -10

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTitans
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.007
  • 38.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.220EPA / rush-0.083
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.52
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.042

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8ATL @ TEN23–28TEN
2019 · W4TEN @ ATL24–10TEN
2015 · W7ATL @ TEN10–7ATL
2011 · W11TEN @ ATL17–23ATL
2007 · W5ATL @ TEN13–20TEN
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TEN
ATLQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:21352Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:491289Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 6:06515Punt7–7
ATLQ1 3:0238Punt7–7
TENQ1 1:32262Touchdown7–14
ATLQ1 0:42426Turnover7–14
TENQ2 14:52632Field goal7–17
ATLQ2 10:54523Turnover7–17
TENQ2 9:1136Punt7–17
ATLQ2 7:03727Turnover7–17
TENQ2 4:0534Punt7–17
ATLQ2 2:55636Touchdown14–17
TENQ2 1:28765Field goal14–20
ATLQ2 0:1310Turnover14–20
TENQ3 15:00623Punt14–20
ATLQ3 11:37864Field goal17–20
TENQ3 7:39422Punt17–20
ATLQ3 4:263-9Punt17–20
TENQ3 2:43775Touchdown17–27
ATLQ4 14:19719Punt17–27
TENQ4 12:203-1Punt17–27
ATLQ4 11:1710Turnover17–27
TENQ4 11:10416Punt17–27
ATLQ4 9:38520Turnover17–27
TENQ4 8:0237Field goal17–30
ATLQ4 6:28841Turnover on downs17–30
TENQ4 2:41521End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell18/2923722
Tony Graziani6/147301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ken Oxendine12413.40
Winslow Oliver341.30
Tony Graziani1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis512790
Eugene Baker58660
Ronnie Harris34450
Jammi German35352
O.J. Santiago12200
Ken Oxendine12100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair15/2921610
Frank Wycheck1/16110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve McNair9768.41
Eddie George19552.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Sanders5101001
Isaac Byrd22841
Frank Wycheck25290
Eddie George45260
Rodney Thomas11260
Derrick Mason1380
Kevin Dyson1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.81
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.41