Closing spread
TEN -10
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.007
- 38.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.0%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.52
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 18/29 | 237 | 2 | 2 |
| Tony Graziani | 6/14 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Eugene Baker | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harris | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 3 | 5 | 35 | 2 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/29 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1/1 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sanders | 5 | 10 | 100 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 2 | 84 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.81
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.41