Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.103
- 46.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.200
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.01CPOE+0.30
- 47.3%Third-down rate32.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.77Points / drive1.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/38 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 17 | 92 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 22/35 | 187 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.99
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.47