2015 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·7

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTitans
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.103
  • 46.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.200
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.01CPOE+0.30
  • 47.3%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.32
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8ATL @ TEN23–28TEN
2019 · W4TEN @ ATL24–10TEN
2011 · W11TEN @ ATL17–23ATL
2007 · W5ATL @ TEN13–20TEN
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN
1999 · W15ATL @ TEN17–30TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00732Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:32635Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:17421Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:0738Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:2339Punt0–0
ATLQ1 2:42754Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ2 14:50619Punt0–0
ATLQ2 11:31721Turnover0–6
TENQ2 8:49119Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 8:421260Field goal3–7
TENQ2 2:311074Turnover3–7
ATLQ2 0:0400End of half3–7
ATLQ3 15:0047Punt3–7
TENQ3 13:16411Punt3–7
ATLQ3 10:26988Touchdown10–7
TENQ3 5:56624Punt10–7
ATLQ3 2:59939Punt10–7
TENQ4 13:5738Punt10–7
ATLQ4 11:381057Turnover10–7
TENQ4 6:30618Turnover on downs10–7
ATLQ4 3:3038Missed field goal10–7
TENQ4 2:28421Turnover10–7
ATLQ4 1:3124End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3825112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman251164.60
Tevin Coleman3144.70
Patrick DiMarco100.00
Matt Ryan2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones917921
Roddy White34480
Nick Williams35430
Jacob Tamme36360
Devonta Freeman23140
Tony Moeaki11110
Terron Ward1170
Tevin Coleman0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger22/3518712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews10575.70
Dexter McCluster5204.00
Zach Mettenberger100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker79550
Dexter McCluster68480
Kendall Wright48461
Anthony Fasano34210
Justin Hunter24170
Bishop Sankey0100
Dorial Green-Beckham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.99
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.47