Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.116
- 42.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.172EPA / rush+0.020
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.2%Third-down rate29.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.93Points / drive1.36
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. ATL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 12:53 | 5 | 39 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 10:45 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q1 7:21 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q1 3:47 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q1 0:41 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| ATL | Q2 12:02 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q2 11:57 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 11:13 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q2 8:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 6:31 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q2 3:44 | 8 | 71 | Missed field goal | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q3 9:02 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| ATL | Q3 5:03 | 4 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 28–24 |
| ATL | Q3 2:32 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 28–24 |
| TEN | Q3 1:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–24 |
| ATL | Q3 0:20 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 28–24 |
| TEN | Q4 13:51 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 31–24 |
| ATL | Q4 9:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 31–24 |
| TEN | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| ATL | Q4 7:39 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| TEN | Q4 5:05 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 38–31 |
| ATL | Q4 2:21 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 38–31 |
| TEN | Q4 1:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 9/15 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 9/11 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 19/32 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64