2007 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Joey Harrington

13·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -9

Total

41

Model margin

+5.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTitans
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.066
  • 37.3%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.139
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -3.93CPOE+1.31
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.43
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8ATL @ TEN23–28TEN
2019 · W4TEN @ ATL24–10TEN
2015 · W7ATL @ TEN10–7ATL
2011 · W11TEN @ ATL17–23ATL
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN
1999 · W15ATL @ TEN17–30TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TEN
ATLQ1 15:0040Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:36513Opp touchdown7–0
TENQ1 10:00753Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 6:153-3Punt7–7
TENQ1 4:16721Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 15:00762Field goal10–7
TENQ2 11:1530Punt10–7
ATLQ2 10:1038Punt10–7
TENQ2 8:4438Punt10–7
ATLQ2 6:40645Missed field goal10–7
TENQ2 2:5349Turnover on downs10–7
ATLQ2 1:5733Punt10–7
TENQ2 1:31743Field goal10–10
TENQ3 15:00311Turnover10–10
ATLQ3 13:37612Field goal13–10
TENQ3 10:08647Field goal13–13
ATLQ3 6:5650Missed field goal13–13
TENQ3 5:49516Punt13–13
ATLQ3 4:1536Punt13–13
ATLQ3 2:10510Opp touchdown13–20
ATLQ3 1:00613Missed field goal13–20
TENQ4 13:39621Missed field goal13–20
ATLQ4 10:43733Punt13–20
TENQ4 6:50510Turnover13–20
ATLQ4 4:153-1Turnover13–20
TENQ4 3:2040Turnover on downs13–20
ATLQ4 2:24610Turnover on downs13–20
TENQ4 1:0000End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington16/318701
Byron Leftwich2/82801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Artose Pinner14949.00
Warrick Dunn10272.70
Jerious Norwood6233.80
Byron Leftwich310.30
Roddy White1-2-2.00

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young20/3315703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LenDale White12322.70
Chris Brown10272.71
Vince Young8273.40
Chris Davis11414.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.77