Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
41
Model margin
+5.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.066
- 37.3%Success rate42.4%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- -3.93CPOE+1.31
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.07Points / drive1.43
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 16/31 | 87 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2/8 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 49 | 49.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 20/33 | 157 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Davis | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.77