2019 · Week 4

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

24·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapFalcons
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.014
  • 45.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.159
  • 11.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.45CPOE+2.32
  • 39.4%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.01
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. ATL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8ATL @ TEN23–28TEN
2015 · W7ATL @ TEN10–7ATL
2011 · W11TEN @ ATL17–23ATL
2007 · W5ATL @ TEN13–20TEN
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN
1999 · W15ATL @ TEN17–30TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–ATL
TENQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:0434Punt6–0
TENQ1 12:09155Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 11:57753Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 8:301470Touchdown14–7
ATLQ1 2:26629Turnover14–7
TENQ1 0:0536Punt14–7
ATLQ2 13:2834Punt14–7
TENQ2 12:12435Field goal17–7
ATLQ2 10:03933Turnover on downs17–7
TENQ2 5:50660Touchdown24–7
ATLQ2 2:231146Missed field goal24–7
TENQ2 0:30313End of half24–7
ATLQ3 15:001061Field goal24–10
TENQ3 11:39420Punt24–10
ATLQ3 9:40856Turnover on downs24–10
TENQ3 5:12522Punt24–10
ATLQ3 2:4837Punt24–10
TENQ3 1:46740Turnover on downs24–10
ATLQ4 13:091477Turnover on downs24–10
TENQ4 7:101134Punt24–10
ATLQ4 1:46552End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota18/2722730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry271003.70
Marcus Mariota3227.30
Dion Lewis4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown33942
Corey Davis56911
Adam Humphries23150
Derrick Henry1180
Darius Jennings1160
Jonnu Smith1150
Delanie Walker1240
Dion Lewis4540

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan35/5339700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12282.30
Matt Ryan2189.00
Ito Smith2115.51
Julio Jones111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper9111300
Mohamed Sanu912910
Devonta Freeman89720
Julio Jones47520
Calvin Ridley36320
Ito Smith24200
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.51