Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.014
- 45.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.159
- 11.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.45CPOE+2.32
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.8%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.99Points / drive2.01
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. ATL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/27 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 27 | 100 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 3 | 94 | 2 |
| Corey Davis | 5 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 35/53 | 397 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 11 | 130 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.51