2011 · Week 11

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

17·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

44

Model margin

+4.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapFalcons
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.046
  • 39.2%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.91CPOE+1.80
  • 35.9%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. ATL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8ATL @ TEN23–28TEN
2019 · W4TEN @ ATL24–10TEN
2015 · W7ATL @ TEN10–7ATL
2007 · W5ATL @ TEN13–20TEN
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN
1999 · W15ATL @ TEN17–30TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–ATL
TENQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:23654Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:4166Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 6:011238Field goal0–10
TENQ2 14:08723Punt0–10
ATLQ2 11:04774Field goal0–13
TENQ2 7:18920Punt0–13
ATLQ2 3:33620Punt0–13
TENQ2 1:01662Field goal3–13
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half3–13
ATLQ3 15:00970Touchdown3–20
TENQ3 11:56515Punt3–20
ATLQ3 9:561168Field goal3–23
TENQ3 3:07348Touchdown10–23
ATLQ3 2:00623Punt10–23
TENQ4 14:24611Punt10–23
ATLQ4 12:051154Turnover10–23
TENQ4 6:361484Touchdown17–23
ATLQ4 3:06437End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker9/1914020
Matt Hasselbeck13/2512401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Hasselbeck11717.00
Chris Johnson12131.10
Jake Locker11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington991152
Jared Cook59510
Javon Ringer36350
Lavelle Hawkins15320
Damian Williams111160
Chris Johnson33150
Marc Mariani0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3231610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner211004.81
Matt Ryan630.50
Jacquizz Rodgers221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White7141470
Tony Gonzalez56741
Harry Douglas44510
Eric Weems33200
Michael Palmer11110
Michael Turner1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.50