Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
44
Model margin
+4.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.046
- 39.2%Success rate43.6%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.91CPOE+1.80
- 35.9%Third-down rate45.0%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. ATL are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 9/19 | 140 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/25 | 124 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 9 | 9 | 115 | 2 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 11 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/32 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 14 | 147 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50