Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
35
Model margin
+2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.52CPOE+0.48
- 40.2%Third-down rate34.1%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 12/21 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 8/12 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 3 | 75 | 0 |
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/29 | 238 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 128 | 3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Kyle Philips | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.21