2023 · Week 8

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

23·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

35

Model margin

+2.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTitans
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.5%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.52CPOE+0.48
  • 40.2%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

TEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W4TEN @ ATL24–10TEN
2015 · W7ATL @ TEN10–7ATL
2011 · W11TEN @ ATL17–23ATL
2007 · W5ATL @ TEN13–20TEN
2003 · W12TEN @ ATL38–31TEN
1999 · W15ATL @ TEN17–30TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00412Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 13:02723Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:47719Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:463-4Punt3–0
TENQ1 4:20461Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 2:28421Punt3–7
TENQ2 14:53522Punt3–7
ATLQ2 12:0432Punt3–7
TENQ2 11:1337Punt3–7
ATLQ2 10:16629Turnover3–7
TENQ2 8:17533Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 5:27427Punt3–14
TENQ2 3:17511Punt3–14
ATLQ2 1:333-8Punt3–14
TENQ2 1:0238Punt3–14
ATLQ2 0:2800End of half3–14
ATLQ3 15:00644Field goal6–14
TENQ3 12:06933Punt6–14
ATLQ3 7:081059Field goal9–14
TENQ3 3:02375Touchdown9–21
ATLQ3 1:37575Touchdown16–21
TENQ4 14:1748Punt16–21
ATLQ4 12:1530Punt16–21
TENQ4 11:51980Touchdown16–28
ATLQ4 6:59966Touchdown23–28
TENQ4 3:4659Punt23–28
ATLQ4 2:1949Turnover on downs23–28
TENQ4 1:3000End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke12/2117510
Desmond Ridder8/127100
Jonnu Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson11625.61
Tyler Allgeier8313.90
Desmond Ridder3268.70
Taylor Heinicke2147.00
Cordarrelle Patterson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KhaDarel Hodge33750
Drake London57550
Kyle Pitts35350
Mack Hollins23270
Van Jefferson35240
Scott Miller22141
Jonnu Smith11130
MyCole Pruitt1230
Bijan Robinson0500

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis19/2923840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry221014.60
Tyjae Spears3279.00
Will Levis7111.60
Chig Okonkwo144.00
Malik Willis242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins461283
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12331
Kyle Philips33240
Chig Okonkwo45230
Derrick Henry44210
Tyjae Spears3490
Treylon Burks0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.21